Pakistan’s population is estimated at 259.3 million in 2026, yet it has four constitutional provinces: Punjab, Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. International experience shows that smaller units can improve representation, but may also create costly bureaucracies and weak governments. Despite rich mineral resources, it suffered from instability, corruption and weak institutions. Smaller provinces can bring government closer to citizens and improve representation, but may also increase costs, create new elites and intensify disputes over capitals, water, jobs and resources. Four provinces are increasingly difficult to justify, but dozens of weak units would be equally damaging.