Over the past few years, it went from an obscure academic subfield to a multibillion dollar industry in the form of prediction markets. But on Metaculus, the spread between base rate and smart humans (Metaculus Pro Forecasters) is 0.13 Brier points. We might conclude that prediction markets somewhat improve on other state-of-the-art forecasting methods in determining whether the US will bomb Iran this year. World’s best forecasting team, under optimal conditions: 40 - 50Perfect score: 100How can we predict the logical limit on forecasting? Anchor 3: What if best human → AI superforecaster was the same level of advance as human → AI chessmaster?