The recent by-election results in India show exactly that pattern. Seen as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chosen candidate, Nitin Nabin became national president of the BJP on 20 January 2026. The student movement that began at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi may also have influenced the outcome of the Bihar by-election. The results in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh could be an early signal for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Voters turning away from the BJP are not guaranteed to shift to the Congress or any strong regional party.