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What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms
['Nate Silver']
Silver Bulletin
What does the model think about that?
However, we look at polls that survey both, and in those polls, Democrats gain a net of about two-and-a-half points among likely voters versus registered voters.
We don’t really use our gut per se in the model, that’s why you have a model.
I’m not sure that’s going to do wonders for the factional fights in the Democratic Party.
And look, I don’t think it would be the worst thing if there were more of a stigma for candidates who raise money from big PACs and corporations.