A group of Democratic senators is asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to either restrict or outright ban prediction market contracts tied to wildfires. Their argument: letting people profit from fires burning longer and hotter creates a financial incentive for arson. During the devastating Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025, offshore betting platforms saw over $1.2 million in wagers placed on fire-related outcomes. The senators’ concern is theoretical, rooted in the idea that financial incentives could eventually push someone to strike a match. The actual wildfire betting activity the senators are concerned about happened on offshore platforms, which sit largely outside the CFTC’s direct jurisdiction.