The war's outbreak initially spurred mortgage rates higher this spring, and rates' fates continue to be tied to news from the Middle East. You wouldn't be wrong to wonder why on Earth that would affect mortgage rates, but it does. That means investors want lower prices and higher returns to offset inflation, and it's those higher returns — technically called bonds' yields — that are ratcheting up mortgage rates. Since then, mortgage rates' ups and downs have been heavily influenced by what's happening in the Middle East. And here's the thing: If words do turn to actions, that's also going to send mortgage rates higher.