The so-called ‘Burnham bounce’ is continuing to show up in the opinion polls, and it hasn’t yet shown any sign of abating. Labour has been in first place or joint-first place in the last eight opinion polls published by major polling firms. In every one of the eight polls, Reform are in second or in joint-first place. The last time Labour led in eight consecutive polls was almost two years ago October 2024. The Opinion poll that has Labour with a four point lead – according to the same calculator – put Labour 23 seats short of a majority.