Key takeawaysBitcoin's 3-month annualized futures basis has paid less than the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield continuously since February 2026, only the second time on record this has happened, per Glassnode's Week 30, 2026 "Paid to Wait" report. Bitcoin's once-lucrative futures carry trade is now underwater relative to the risk-free rate. The carry trade mechanics are straightforward: long spot Bitcoin (or a spot ETF), short the futures contract, and pocket the premium between the two. Bitcoin spot volume sitting at its lowest since 2019 fits the same picture. The bond market backdrop remains relevant too: if Treasury yields move materially, the basis comparison resets.