The $2.5 T IOU – Big Tech’s Off-Balance-Sheet AI Bet
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Global Macro Monitor
Alphabet now carries $811 billion in purchase commitments, including $707 billion with terms beyond one year, a stunning $475 billion sequential increase.
Even Oracle, the smallest of the group, has $260 billion in pending leases and $19 billion of unconditional purchase commitments running five years.
As S&P’s Gavan Nolan puts it, “Hyperscalers are the big driver of the investment-grade CDS market right now.”
The capex put is smaller than advertised, the exit doors are narrowing, and the CDS market is now quoting the cover charge.
*Sources: Chris Bryant, “AI’s Wildest Spenders Are Hitting the Accelerator,” Bloomberg Opinion, July 31, 2026; IFR/market reporting on AI linked credit trading, July 2026.