According to Enten, the current polling represents the strongest position for a Texas Democratic Senate candidate since at least the late 1980s, when Lloyd Bentsen last won the seat in 1988. That gap represents roughly a nine-point improvement for Democrats compared to the O'Rourke-Cruz race, which Cruz ultimately won by fewer than three points. "Independents – the name of the game shifting significantly to the left hand and supercharging James Talarico," Enten said. "It could be real, every single time I look at the polling going, 'this can't be right.' Enten noted that Cruz entered the summer of 2018 with a favorability rating eight points above water, while Paxton currently sits six points underwater overall — and a striking 47 points underwater among independents specifically.