A group of Democratic senators has called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to crack down on prediction market contracts tied to wildfires. AdvertisementTo be clear, no confirmed incidents of arson linked to prediction market activity have been reported. Legislative initiatives in 2026 have already targeted prediction markets dealing with death, warfare, terrorism, and illegal activities. The CFTC retains some existing authority over event contracts. If the CFTC moves to restrict certain categories of event contracts, platforms like Polymarket face a choice between compliance and relocation.