US end of Iranian blockadeIran has reportedly rejected the latest pressure campaign from the United States under President Donald Trump, according to former Iranian officials. The current geopolitical tension has impacted prediction markets concerning the U.S. blockade of Iran. As of now, the market for the U.S. announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, remains at 55% YES. This suggests some optimism remains for a diplomatic resolution, albeit tempered by the recent escalatory rhetoric. Key TakeawaysIran’s rejection of the U.S. pressure campaign appears consistent with decreased likelihood of the Iranian blockade ending by August 31, 2026.