Sahar MaranlouAs the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its sixth month, Washington appears to be betting that sustained military pressure will fracture Tehran. Security institutions can argue that the country endured because it retained the capacity to retaliate and must now restore deterrence. Different institutions control different parts of the same decision, and different actors have diverging interests and goals. A recovery dominated by IRGC-linked organisations would shape the direction of the post-war state, not just the distribution of contracts. If security institutions settle those questions before he does, the succession will have transferred the office of supreme leader without transferring the power to determine Iran’s direction.