Deutsche Bank’s bear case, which envisions gold dropping to a floor of $3,800 per ounce, hinges on the Fed raising rates three to four times. Instead, Deutsche Bank still sees a path to $6,000 per ounce in 2026, a projection it first laid out on January 27. Deutsche Bank’s analysts specifically emphasize gold’s growing role as a non-dollar reserve asset, noting it appears “increasingly disconnected from speculative market dynamics.” Deutsche Bank’s $3,800 bear case assumes multiple Fed rate hikes. The 244 tonnes of central bank gold purchases in a single quarter tells you something about how sovereign entities view the current monetary landscape.