France and Spain fires expected to have limited impact on European insurers ‘26 earnings: Fitch

The ongoing fires in France and Spain are expected to have a limited impact on the 2026 earnings of large European insurers, provided the fires do not spread into major urban, residential, or industrial hubs, according to a recent Fitch Ratings report. Barring urban spread or multiple follow-on events, especially near major cities like Bordeaux or Madrid, Fitch expects only modest pressure on insurers’ 2026 earnings. In France, wildfires are excluded from the CatNat scheme, while Spain’s Consorcio coverage only applies if an event is designated as extraordinary. Even if wildfires avoid urban areas, late loss creep remains possible via smoke, agricultural impact, industrial exposure, or suburban spread. Fitch emphasised: “Reported structure losses in France and Spain so far appear much lower, but further effects remain a risk.