But the risk of Ukrainian drone strikes means no public festivities: more humiliation for the Kremlin. August is known as the “cursed month” in Russia, and with good reason. August 2008 brought the Georgian war, proving that Russia could attack other countries with impunity: a fatal lesson. Fuel shortages caused by targeted Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries are not just an inconvenience, they are creating an inflationary and recessionary shock to the entire Russian economy. This is one reason that the political price of the war is rocketing.