The big hurdle for Democrats' Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them. In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek led by 4 points among registered voters in a Fox poll in late June. - Mark Felix/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesMary Peltola launches her campaign as a Democratic candidate for Senate in Anchorage, Alaska, on January 17, 2026. But it's not yet clear how much better his replacement, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, will ultimately fare under the new spotlight. Advertisement AdvertisementThat means Democrats could go into the November general election not even knowing how many seats they need to win.