Polymarket gives Democrats a 68 percent advantage while Kalshi gives Democrats a 69 percent chance. That matters because the chamber is so closely divided, with 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one Independent and four vacant seats. Kalshi had Democrats at 63 percent and Republicans at 35 percent, while Polymarket had Democrats at 61 percent and Republicans at 37 percent. Inside Elections rates WA-03 as a toss-up, underscoring that Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is still facing a competitive race despite the market’s Democratic lean. Subscribe to Newsweek's Midterms Monitor newsletter for daily updates, Monday through Friday, on the major stories shaping the campaign trail.