Britain's economy could slip into recession in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to global shipping beyond the middle of next year, according to new forecasts released by EY on Monday. EY slightly adjusted its forecast for the UK economy, expecting growth of 0.8% in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of September. Under that baseline scenario, economic growth is projected to accelerate to 1.2% in 2027, supported by easing energy prices and improving business confidence. EY estimates UK economic growth would slow to 0.5% this year, while the economy would contract by 0.2% in 2027 if shipping disruptions continue into early or mid-2027. Even under those assumptions, the central bank still projects the UK economy to expand by nearly 1% in 2027, with quarterly inflation peaking around 4.5%.