This would bring the average GDP growth to 2.8% in the first half, below the government’s 3.5%-4.5% full-year target. “We estimate slower growth in the second quarter where the brunt of the Middle East crisis weighed on the global economy. GROWTH DRIVERSMeanwhile, Moody’s Analytics Economist Sarah Tan said merchandise exports growth should have contributed to GDP growth, although momentum may have slowed from the first quarter due to “global trade uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions.” HSBC ASEAN Senior Economist Aris D. Dacanay, who forecast 2.7% growth, said goods exports, particularly semiconductors, provided support for economic growth. Ms. Tan, who sees full-year economic growth at 3.8%, said El Niño poses a key downside risk as it impacts agricultural production and food inflation.