El-Sayed leads Stevens 54.8 percent to 45.2 percent in The Public Sentiment Institute’s projected result for the August 4 Democratic primary. Prediction markets have also shifted toward El-Sayed, with Polymarket and Kalshi listing him at 97 percent in their Michigan Democratic Senate primary winner markets. Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV found him leading 54 percent to 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, with 6 percent undecided. Polymarket listed El-Sayed at 97 percent in its Michigan Democratic Senate primary winner market, with the market’s most active listing showing heavy expectation of an El-Sayed win. TPSI’s issue polling suggests that may be a liability with many Democratic primary voters.