But with still no more than a narrow lead over Reform, it is unsurprising Burnham has ruled out an early election. In any event, Reform's displacement from first place in the polls for the first time in over a year appears to owe more to its own difficulties than it does to Labour's new-found popularity. Immediately before Farage's announcement, Reform's average poll rating stood at 27%. In the polls conducted immediately after Farage's announcement, it fell by three points to 24%, the level at which it still stands now, and the lowest it has been for 15 months. At the same time, Farage's personal poll ratings are now the worst they have been since he returned as Reform's leader during the 2024 election campaign.