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AI Related Imports Flattens Out, Investment Decelerates
['Menzie Chinn']
Econbrowser
Approximately, as we don’t have direct observations on items solely related to AI.
Figure 1: Imports of computers, computer peripherals, plus semiconductors (blue, left log scale), investment in information equipment, and software (red, right log scale), both in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR.
In the last year, computer and peripherals import prices have risen about 15% faster than software, while information equipment prices have risen about 8% faster than software.
Further note the increase in summed imports masks a sharp divergence between equipment and semiconductors; the latter jumped enormously, while equipment dropped slightly.
My estimate of nominal imports was about$700 billion (SAAR) for Q2, based on April and May imports.