At first glance, Iran's surprise missile strike on a US base in Jordan earlier this week appeared difficult to explain. The attack effectively ended the fragile pause in direct US-Iran fighting and prompted Washington to resume strikes inside Iran. One possible explanation is that Tehran believes that, despite its risks, a limited war serves its interests better. Iran may also try to avoid an all-out war because its weakened air defences, vulnerable industrial infrastructure and sanctions-constrained economy make rebuilding losses increasingly difficult and expensive. Iran may have concluded that this creates room for a strategy based not on military victory but on sustained pressure.