For now, the El Niño-driven hostile upper-level winds and Saharan dust are dominating the atmosphere over the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. In addition, the ocean water remains quite cool, though it's warming into a range that could support tropical development. The extremely hostile upper-level winds are likely to continue over the Caribbean as the El Niño heads for "super" status. Tropical disturbances have been departing Africa all summer, but the Atlantic has been so inhospitable that they have remained weak until they reached the Pacific, where a number have developed into hurricanes. The long-range computer forecast models are finally indicating the possibility a strong enough disturbance will move off Africa around the middle of next month that it can survive over the tropical Atlantic.