The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That is about half of the historical average growth of 3.1% and continues a record of slow growth over the last three quarters. Nonresidential fixed investment, in part propelled by spending for AI infrastructure, contributed significantly to the Q2 growth. But many of these components were imported, so the net contribution to U.S. GDP — which measures production of new goods in the United States — was more muted. I see conflict in the Middle East as an ongoing unfavorable factor for U.S. real GDP growth and inflation.