Warnings of a powerful El Niño developing this year have reignited concerns over food inflation, crop losses and supply shortages. Despite the alarming forecasts, ING’s analysis of previous moderate-to-strong El Niño episodes suggests global agricultural output has historically remained relatively resilient. The report also found little evidence that El Niño alone drives sustained spikes in food prices. During the 2002-03 El Niño event, output fell 58% year-on-year, while production declined 36% during the 2023-24 episode. Rather than focusing on worst-case global supply scenarios, ING suggests the 2026-27 El Niño could serve as a catalyst for agribusinesses to strengthen their preparedness for future climate-related disruptions.