Talarico's advantage grows to a 6-point lead among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters, the poll shows. While months of campaigning remain, the latest poll offers Democrats one of their clearest signs yet that Texas may be more competitive than previously believed. What Other Polling ShowsA New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied at 47 percent. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 45 percent to 40 percent. The poll surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.