These are connected events and theatres, but also disconnected; they are correlated, but not entirely causal – a détente between the US and Iran would not necessarily lead to a cessation of hostilities in the Red Sea, and vice versa. But one key fact quickly become apparent since the group began attacking merchant shipping in the Red Sea in late 2023: controlling the Bab Al Mandad strait is a great money-earner. “Unspecified sources told Reuters the People’s Republic of China has held direct negotiations with the Houthis to secure safe and toll-free passage for PRC vessels navigating the southern Red Sea”. However, it adds: “It is unclear whether the Houthis intend to establish a fee system in order to achieve other potential strategic objectives, such as securing codified permanent control over the Bab al Mandeb.” The broader picture is deeply troubling: shipper hopes of a full-scale Red Sea reopening are in abeyance, freight costs will remain elevated and subject to sudden spikes, and the longer-term economic impact is getting grimmer by the day.