When making their forecasts, the respondents were asked to consider “slow, “moderate, and “rapid” scenarios for AI progress by 2030. First, the main results, which should perhaps make folks who wants to pause or stop AI progress update their views:“If AI progress is rapid, experts forecast 500,000 annual deaths from tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and malaria in 2050, compared with 1.65 million deaths if AI progress is slow.” “Experts forecast that rapid AI progress would increase U.S. life expectancy by almost 16 years in 2100, compared with just six years if AI progress is slow.” “Under rapid AI progress, experts forecast that annualized GDP growth between 2045 and 2050 will be 3 percentage points higher in advanced economies and 2 percentage points higher in emerging and developing economies than under slow AI progress.” Frankly, both the moderate and rapid scenarios are underweighted in much of the public discussion in favor of extreme scenarios.