The decline in global refinery runs is tightening fuel supplies just as demand heads toward the fourth-quarter peak season. The analysts said diesel inventories remain below seasonal norms while exports continue to slide, leaving the fuel especially vulnerable to further supply disruptions. "Diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze," the analysts warned. Global diesel exports have fallen by about 2.6 million barrels per day, or 35%, from a year earlier, while jet fuel exports have also slumped, further tightening middle-distillate markets. Related:The analysts recommended clients seeking to hedge ongoing geopolitical turmoil to take a long position in the December 2026–March 2027 European diesel timespread:Hedging escalation with diesel length.