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EN
Fed remains concerned about inflation and keeps interest rates in 3.50%–3.75% range
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The Corner
The market is maintaining its forecasts of a raise of 25 bp in September/October and a further 25 bp in Q1 2027.
The next meeting (16 September) will incorporate the updated macroeconomic outlook (GDP, inflation) and the ‘dot plot’ (which, excluding Warsh’s ‘dots’, pointed in June to one rate rise this year).
Samsung has also reported, with record results but a fall in its share price (down 2%), clear evidence that expectations are high.
ETFs tracking Samsung and SK Hynix have recorded losses of as much as 75-80%.
The market is pricing in a +25 bp hike in Q4 2026, another in Q1 2027, and is beginning to price in a third in Q2 2027.