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The Fed Paused. The Bond Market Did Not.
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TFTC – Truth for the Commoner
Chair Kevin Warsh offered almost no forward guidance and tried to reassure the market that inflation would keep moving in the right direction.
The market is saying that the price of money today and the credibility of money over time are two different things.
His argument is that the bond market can substitute for a policy-rate hike.
Quarterly PCE inflation ran at 5.1%, with core PCE at 3.4%.
It does not control the price the market demands for holding long-duration government debt.