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Germany inflation seen picking up again in July as state readings accelerate
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The German state readings released around the same time:Bavaria July CPI +2.8% vs +2.5% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia July CPI +2.7% vs +2.1% y/y priorSaxony July CPI +2.7% vs +2.5% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg June CPI +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y priorThe headline inflation figures here are much higher than in June, which points to an acceleration in price pressures in July.
Even the monthly readings are running hot with Bavaria recording +0.6%, North Rhine Westphalia +0.9%, Saxony +0.6%, and Baden Wuerttemberg +0.8%.
The German national reading later is expected at 2.7% but based on the figures above, there will be potential upside risks to the figure.
I reckon we could see it meet estimates at 2.7% or perhaps come in a little hotter at 2.8%.
As things stand, traders are pricing in ~65% odds of the ECB hiking rates next in September.