What you cannot find, anywhere in 24 years of data, is Spider-Man fatigue, and the Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office weekend now arriving looks like the most emphatic proof yet. Presales suggest which camp to trust, with roughly $80 million in domestic advance sales already past the $78 million Spider-Man: No Way Home had banked before its $260.1 million opening in 2021. The plausible range, and every Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office model I have seen supports it, sits between $250 million and $300 million. The Spider-Man: Brand New Day box office question was never whether it makes money. Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations put it to Variety plainly, saying “superhero fatigue is real, but Spider-Man fatigue is not,” and blaming connected-universe sprawl for “turning entertainment into homework.”