Mesoscale Discussion 1800 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Areas affected...much of central South Dakota...north central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300440Z - 300645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of thunderstorms may be slow to weaken, but associated strong to severe wind gusts probably will diminish through 1-3 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Beneath mid/upper ridging, weakly sheared, southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-15 kt prevails across much of the middle Missouri Valley. Despite the loss of daytime heating, moistening southeasterly near-surface flow ahead of activity across central South Dakota has been maintaining, or even contributing to a subtle increase in, potential instability. Whether this is enough to maintain convection supportive of continuing strong to severe surface gusts remains somewhat unclear. As activity advances into an environment with progressively less steep mid-level lapse rates, and higher low-level moisture content with reduced latent cooling potential, the risk for severe wind gusts seems likely to diminish.