The renewed geopolitical premium comes just hours before the Federal Reserve announces its latest interest-rate decision, with markets divided over whether policymakers will leave rates unchanged or deliver the first rate increase since 2023. June’s inflation report eased pressure on the Federal Reserve after lower oil prices helped cool headline inflation during the brief lull in the Iran war, but that relief appears to have been short-lived. With crude prices once again flirting with $90 as fighting resumes, investors are divided over whether policymakers will leave interest rates unchanged or respond to renewed inflation risks. After claiming they struck a Saudi tanker, the group warned it is considering new measures against commercial shipping transiting the Bab el-Mandeb, including imposing transit fees on vessels using the strategic waterway. The latest threat comes as Saudi Arabia has already begun rerouting crude exports through Egypt’s SUMED pipeline to bypass the chokepoint.