Forward guidance is a tool central banks use to signal how they expect interest rates to evolve over the coming months, helping households and businesses adjust consumption, investment, and borrowing without sudden shocks. Flight's note argues that a surprise hike can reset how firms set prices and workers negotiate wages before the economy actually slows, meaning the Fed ultimately has to tighten (hike rates) less than it would if it waited and moved more gradually. But that only works if the shock actually lands as a shock. It's the question of timingThe note argues that the Fed's next move is a rate hike, as both markets and policymakers lean in that direction. CME's FedWatch shows the September hike is a near-done deal.