The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. Traders typically assign greater weight to FOMC meetings that come with updated economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest-rate forecasts. Unusual uncertainty over the outcome: Markets are still assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate increase, CME fed funds futures show. The firm argues a move would end forward guidance as a policy choice, an outcome Chair Warsh has long favored.