What happened was the largest unexpected swing in global oil balances: China quietly cut crude oil imports by more than five million barrels a day. If prices at $120 or $130 destroy one or two million barrels a day of demand, we needed five, six, seven million barrels a day — a notably higher price threshold to drive that behavior. Here’s what we know for sure: imports fell five million barrels a day, and Chinese refining runs fell about three million barrels a day — again, the steepest contraction since COVID zero in 2022. Instead, they’ve done much more than insulate themselves — they’ve backstopped the entire global oil market. This was the biggest shock anyone could imagine in the oil market, and the fact that we avoided the worst consequences is actually very heartening for the global system.