Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Russian fuel production had fallen well below normal seasonal demand following repeated attacks on energy infrastructure, forcing Moscow to reroute fuel from Siberia and begin imports from Belarus, India, and elsewhere. And yet, those attacks and the damage Ukraine is doing do not appear to have made the Kremlin more willing to negotiate. But whatever it is, if Putin wants to take control of the Donbas, he has only a small number of risky options. While Russia and Ukraine exchange long-range blows, Russian forces continue to push ahead in their Donbas campaign, albeit with diminishing returns. Without that progress, another mobilization would likely push Russian elites further away from the Russian president at a time when insiders say they are already growing wary of the war.