But if his party performs poorly in three state elections in September, the crisis will likely become much harder to contain. The complication was plain enough: Surrogacy is banned in Germany, and the CDU has long opposed it, as had Spahn. The second act of the crisis was meant, in Merz’s telling, to be a liberation and a fresh start. On Thursday, Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder learned that he was to be dismissed and immediately told his staff by text message. But the man Merz had lined up to replace him was not yet convinced to take the job and withdrew.