China invasion of TaiwanChina has initiated new maritime patrols near Taiwan, which analysts suggest could escalate into a blockade, highlighting growing tensions between the two. The patrols, conducted by China’s coast guard and civilian maritime assets, are part of a broader strategy by Beijing to exert pressure on Taiwan without overt military engagement. This move is seen as a calculated effort by China to test and potentially normalize control over strategic sea lanes surrounding Taiwan. Key TakeawaysMarket activity suggests the new maritime patrols are consistent with an increased likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, now priced at 13% YES. The probability of a military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 remains stable at 7%, despite the heightened tensions.