Australia’s inflation pace has moderated to pre-Iran war levels with economists at the big four banks now all declaring the end of rate hikes in 2026. “We no longer expect rate hikes by the RBA this year,” Dr Ellis said. Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted the 3.8 per cent CPI was much lower than Reserve Bank forecasts of 4.8 per cent for June 2026 and Treasury Budget predictions of 5 per cent. “This means that inflation has come in lower than expected, lower than forecast in the Budget or by the Reserve Bank,” he said. Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said Labor’s high spending was fuelling inflation and risked sparking another interest rate hike.