The latest Citi/YouGov survey shows UK household inflation expectations have fallen sharply, landing near the levels recorded in January 2026 before geopolitical chaos in the Middle East sent energy prices, and nerves, soaring. One-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped to 3.8% in June from 4.7% in May. Longer-term expectations, covering five years or more, also ticked down from 4.0% in May to 3.9% in June. In March 2026, short-term inflation expectations spiked to 5.4%, the highest reading since February’s 3.3%. July data reinforced the downward trend even further, with one-year expectations falling to 3.4% and longer-term expectations declining to 3.7%.