Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has effectively abandoned forward guidance, leaving investors with little clarity ahead of the announcement. 28, 2026Open interest in federal funds futures has reached an all-time high ahead of one of the most uncertain Federal Reserve meetings in years. According to CME data, outstanding contracts tied to tomorrow’s policy decision rose to 967,136, exceeding the previous record as markets continued to assign about a 30% chance of a surprise interest rate hike. In a recent note, The Kobeissi Letter expects the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday despite unusually divided market expectations heading into the decision. According to the firm, interest rate futures currently imply about a 30% probability of a rate hike and a 70% chance that the Fed holds rates steady, a sharp contrast to nearly every meeting since March 2020, when markets entered decision day with roughly 99% consensus.