Iran military action against a gulf stateThe United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has executed precision airstrikes in Iraq aimed at Iran-backed groups. This military action occurs amid ongoing regional tensions, highlighting the persistent threat environment involving U.S. forces and Iran-aligned militias. Markets appear to interpret the U.S. strikes as a measure to deter immediate Iranian military action against Gulf states, influencing the regional geopolitical landscape. AdvertisementKey TakeawaysMarkets suggest that CENTCOM’s strikes in Iraq are consistent with efforts to deter Iranian military action against Gulf states. The probability of Iranian action against a Gulf state on July 30 has increased to 21.5%, reflecting heightened regional tensions.