It sits roughly 95% below its all-time high, a $5.6 billion shell of the top-10 giant it used to be. So the question splitting analysts is blunt: does a dovish surprise finally bail out beaten ADA holders, or does history repeat and Cardano sells the news again? The 50-day EMA near $0.175 clusters with the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $0.173 just below it. If Warsh sounds hawkish or hikes, $0.162 support cracks and ADA slides toward $0.139 and the June low with little in between. So the real question for Cardano holders: is the Fed a lifeline, or just the next excuse for the market to sell ADA one more time?