Andy Burnham has been warned by a leading thinktank of “very difficult trade-offs in the next autumn budget” if the Iran war keeps oil prices and inflation high. The thinktank said it had cut its forecast for the chancellor’s spending headroom in the budget from just over £7bn to nearer £3bn. He said he supported the introduction of a land value tax to replace council tax and stamp duty on home sales. He said higher and more persistent inflation would create “very difficult trade-offs in the next autumn budget”. The NIESR expects inflation to average 3.1% in 2026, peaking at 3.8% in February 2027 after energy price cap adjustments.