BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam see elevated US supercore inflation as a key argument for further tightening but still favor a July hold. Supercore pressures and task force review"The most compelling argument for a rate hike remains the inflation rate. We share that concern, and note that since mid-2023, so-called “supercore” (i.e., core services inflation ex shelter) has been running at nearly a percentage point above its pre-COVID pace." "Crucially, while trimmed mean inflation understated rising inflation in the aftermath of COVID relative to core y/y PCE, it need not always be dovish. In a period of disinflation driven by specific volatile components, trimmed mean would also understate disinflation.